Surprises

Surprises

   This year, at least so far, has been one of surprises.  I was surprised to find that after one month, my computer had cleared over 12,000 cookies (and really, I'm not on my computer all that much...no games, no movie downloads, no Facebook, etc.).  I was surprised to find that 93% of the corn planted is genetically modified (more corn is used for ethanol than for either human or animal consumption).  I was surprised to read that half of all packaged foods now use palm oil (up 500%).  I was surprised to read that the highest wind turbines now running are nearly twice as tall as the Statue of Liberty.  And I was surprised to find that the extremist group ISIS has only 7,000 soldiers.  What??  What was even more shocking was that Iraq has 300,000 armed militia.  So what's going on?

   ISIS (officially the Islamic State in Iraq al Sham, "al Sham" meaning the north, in Arabic and refers to Muslim warriors in the 7th century who went on to conquer North Africa, southern Spain and the Middle East), is run by self-declared caliph ("successor" in Arabic), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a leader chastised by al-Queda for not fighting Westerners.  He broke away to form ISIS and began taking land from Shiites in Syria which caused his expulsion from al-Queda.  The goal of al-Baghdadi is to reclaim the land his 7th century ancestors took, often by sword and beheadings based on a justice system run by Abbasids (they went on to form Baghdad)...but according to an op-ed piece in Blooomberg Businessweek this week (written by Brian Michael Jenkins, author of The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War), ISIS is reaching its border limits and may soon implode from within.  Sound complicated...there's more!

   For one, not all Muslims back this return to "sharia" law which bans smoking, drinking and music, despite a desire to return to earlier times when the caliphate was strong (the last ended with the fall of the Ottoman Empire).  Women must wear veils and those suspected of adultery or immodesty are flogged, according to The Week.  Yet a recent broadcast by 60 Minutes showed testimony of women who were taken, had their veils and clothes ripped off, then were molested and sold or used by ISIS soldiers...seemingly a direct contrast to the strict rules of ISIS.  Village residents who refuse to convert or try to escape are executed.  Al-Baghdadi announced himself as "successor to the Prophet and the supreme religious authority and absolute political leaders of the world's 1.5 billion Muslims," said Bloomberg Businessweek.  "Al-Baghdadi obeys only God, so all Muslims must obey al-Baghdadi.  Traditional Muslim scholars consider that declaration presumptuous and a violation of Islamic law.  Even Osama bin Laden never contemplated such a step."

   ISIS gets its funding by raiding banks and people in captured cities, or by ransoming foreigners (popularized by social media...when Twitter cut off their feed, ISIS threatened to retaliate against Twitter employees worldwide;  ISIS social media is suspected of being run by a dual U.S.-Syrian citizen who grew up in Boston and learned his computer skills at Northeastern University).  ISIS also sells oil on the black market, primarily to Turkey, from a captured refinery.  These combined revenue sources are suspected of bringing ISIS nearly $1 million daily (ISIS also sells archeological artifacts on the black market, many from the Shia mosques and Christian sites they destroy).  And despite the media frenzy of captured U.S. weapons, it is suspected that the items are little more than Humvees and handheld grenade launchers.

   So, why is ISIS such a threat and why hasn't the group simply been eliminated (the U.S. launched a sustained rocket and missile attack earlier today with 47 Tomahawks fired, and President Obama will address the United Nations tomorrow regarding increased participation for eliminating the threat of ISIS)?  Earlier, the Washington Post claimed that "unless ISIS is stopped, it will completely destabilized the Middle East, and sooner or later it will carry out terror attacks in Europe and the U.S."  But few surrounding countries seem interested.

   Turkey (getting a flood of refugees that now approaches 1 million) will not allow U.S. fighter planes to leave from bases in Turkey (and also will not allow Kurdish fighters in Turkey to cross over and help fellow Kurdish fighters in Syria).  Saudi Arabia (with 250,000 armed soldiers and 50 aircraft) will not allow any military participation.  Qatar, who aided the U.S. in the takedown of Libya's dictatorship, has its hands tied due to negotiations with Saudi Arabia (a monarchy, and Qatar is pushing for free elections).  France has said no fighter jets in Syria;  England has proclaimed no military involvement other than advisors (despite the beheading of a British journalist, one done by a British citizen turned ISIS fighter).  China (despite having oil and gas contracts in Iraq) remains silent.  Iran (primarily Shi'ite and somewhat helping the U.S. fight ISIS in its battle) treads a fine line to not offend its many Arab Sunni neighbors.   For the most recent list of who's helping and who's not, CNN compiled a rundown and a slightly more detailed explanation of the complexity of the situation can be viewed in the September 29th issue of Time (the link gives you only a quick summary).

   Politics is confusing as most diplomats discover.  Battling cultural difference, religious differences, historical differences, ruling government differences, it's a wonder that anything gets accomplished.  But one has to ask, with so few surrounding countries interested, why is the U.S. so adamant in tackling this mess?  Is it humanitarian (if so, why not strictly provide humanitarian aid)?  Is it the oil and a silent exchange with China (we'll protect your refineries if you hold off on cashing our Treasury bonds)?  Is it to support our economy (we are still the world's largest arms dealer)?  Is it a series of issues we, the public, know little or nothing about?  Is it a combination of all of the above?  The questions are many...my hope here was to simply provide a bit of background above the noise of the television broadcasts.